Market View - 4/12/17 to 8/12/17

Another full trading week ahead.

First week of the December F&O series.

Nifty50 uptrend paused last week. Although in the medium term the uptrend still remains, but it looks to have lost momentum.

This week,

Short term Buy trades look possible if Nifty gets back above 10200. Medium term uptrend can regain momentum only above 10250-10280 levels.

On the other hand, below 10100, SHORT SELL trades can open up. Below 10000, medium term downtrend will start!

Note : Sensex also showing similar patterns.

           Short term positive above 32900.

Short term negative below 32700.

Bank Nifty uptrend also took a hit last week. Medium term uptrend still remains here also, but it looks to have lost momentum.

                                           

This week,

The uptrend here will sustain only if the 25200-25000 support holds.

Below 24800, medium term downtrend will gain speed.

Other Sectoral Indices –

NEGATIVE –

Pharma (downtrend momentum below 8980) (short term positive above 9150)

(For now, SHORT SELL trades, but only on rally in individual stocks possible)

Realty (Short term Negative below 318) (Short term positive only above 323)

(For now, SHORT SELL trades but only on rally in individual stocks possible)

NEUTRAL –

IT – (Positive if 10960-10900 support holds) (Short term negative below 10900)

(For now, Short term BUY trades ON DIPS in individual stocks possible)

Metal – (Current downtrend can pause if 3575 support holds) (Medium term downtrend starts below 3500)

(For now, Short term BUY trades ON DIPS in individual stocks possible)

FMCG - (In a range 25500 – 26200)

(For now, Short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible, till the index stays above 25600)

Auto - (Positive only above 11200) (short term negative below 11050)

(For now, Short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible)

Energy - (In a range 13860-14490)

(For now, Short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible)

Personal Notes:

Is the market changing direction?

Short Sell trade signals are appearing pretty consistently!

Looks like for now, every up move will start facing resistance!

So, BUY trades to be taken only for the short term.

SHORT SELL trades using F&O should come more and more in use!

Volatility index has broken out of its range (14-10) on the upside!

Early in the week, volatility may drop a little.

But overall, rising volatility is not a good sign for Buyers!

MOST STOCKS TEND TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THEIR SECTOR INDEX.

BUYING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS POSITIVE.

SELLING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS NEGATIVE.

BUYING / SELLING AGAINST THE SECTOR INDEX SIGNAL CAN ALSO BE DONE IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, PROVIDED THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR DOING SO.

Disclaimer – Please do your own analysis before taking trades.