Market View - 1/1/2018 to 5/1/2018

First trading week of 2018.

Nifty50 did not go anywhere last week. Due to the yearend trading lull?

A small range 10550-10450 has got formed.

Break on either side will give clear opportunities.

This week,

Early in the week, the new year effect which reduces trading participations dramatically, is likely to continue.

BUYING possible above 10550.

Short term SHORT SELLING opportunities possible below 10450.

Note : Sensex also in a small range 34160-33750. Best signals will come on a breakout on either side.

Bank Nifty continues its range bound movement 25760-25200.

                                           

This week,

BUY trades possible above 25750.

Short term SHORT SELL trades possible below 25400.

Other Sectoral Indices –

POSITIVE –

IT – (Positive till 11450 holds)

(For now, BUY trades ON DIPS in individual stocks possible)

Metal – (Positive above 3985. Short term support now near 3910)

(For now, BUY trades ON DIPS or BREAKOUT in individual stocks possible)

                                                   

NEUTRAL –

Auto - (Range 12070-11850)

(For now, best trades will open up on either side of the range, or on a breakout)

FMCG - (Range 26800-26400)

(For now, best trades will open up on either side of the range, or on a breakout)

Energy - (Still In the range. 14490-13860)

(For now, Short term trades in individual stocks ON BOTH SIDES possible)

(In the very short term, a rally is possible)

Pharma - (downtrend reversing?)

( Positive only above 9760) (negative again below 9400)

(For now, BUY on breakout, and wait to see if a dip finds support near 9400, below which, SHORT SELL trades, in individual stocks possible with low volume)

Realty - (Positive above 349, but now entering risk zone)

(For now, Short term BUY trades on a breakout possible)

Personal Notes:

Better trading participation should be seen from the second half of the week.

A clear trend should emerge thereafter. Till then better to wait or trade with low volumes.

Volatility index is still in that range (14-10)

Currently at the higher end of the range.

MOST STOCKS TEND TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THEIR SECTOR INDEX.

BUYING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS POSITIVE.

SELLING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS NEGATIVE.

BUYING / SELLING AGAINST THE SECTOR INDEX SIGNAL CAN ALSO BE DONE IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, PROVIDED THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR DOING SO.

Disclaimer – Please do your own analysis before taking trades.