A full trading week ahead.
Result season is on.
To check list of companies which will announce results this week –
Click here
Nifty50 –
broke its 2 month range a couple of weeks ago. The range breakout has a big
target and can take this index till 11700.
For now though, the speed of this
upmove is getting a bit too fast.
This week,
BUY possible
if Nifty stays above 11200.
Very Short term SHORT
SELL possible if Nifty goes below 11200.
Major trend change likely only if
Nifty goes below 11000.
Similar signs visible in Sensex.
Short term BUY possible
if Sensex stays above 37336.
Short term SHORT
SELL possible if Sensex goes below 37130.
Major trend change starts only if
Sensex goes below 36700.
Nifty Bank – also
broke out of its 2 month range last week. The range breakout has a target of
27900.
In this index also, the speed of
this upmove is getting a bit too fast.
This week,
BUY possible
if Nifty Bank goes above 27650.
Very Short term SHORT
SELL possible if Nifty Bank goes below 27500.
Bank Nifty remains a buy on dips
until it goes below 27000.
Other Sectoral Indices –
Auto - (Uptrend under
threat!) (Needs to go above 11050 to save the uptrend)
(For now, short term BUY trades
in individual stocks possible only if this index goes above 10900)
(SHORT SELL trades in individual
stocks will again be possible if this current up move fails)
Energy - (In an Uptrend)
(Crucial support now near 14500)
(For now BUY trades
in individual stocks possible if this index goes above 14737 or after a dip to
support levels)
FMCG - (In n
Uptrend) (Crucial support now near 30000)
(For now, BUY trades
in individual stocks possible after a dip)
IT – (In a mild UpTrend) (Currently
in a range 14750-14400)
(For now, best trades in
individual stocks possible only after range break)
Metal – (In a Downtrend)
(No trend reversal until 3500 gets crossed!)
(For now, short term BUY trades
in individual stocks possible until 3230 on the index is held)
(SHORT SELL trades in individual
stocks will again be possible if this current up move fails)
Pharma - (In a
Downtrend) (Needs to cross 9381 for the current upmove to continue. Below 8875
level downtrend resumes)
(For now, short term BUY trades
in individual stocks possible until 8900 on the index is held)
Realty - (In a
Downtrend) (Needs to cross 290 to confirm change in trend)
(For now, short term BUY trades
in individual stocks possible after the index crosses 268)
Personal Notes:
Market movement surprises traders
and investors all the time!
Just a month ago what looked like a
range bound market has suddenly resumed its uptrend!
Is there large scale participation?
Or is this up move in indices due to large heavyweight stocks?
That will become clear in the coming
days.
But, As traders we should not fight
the trend!
Result season is currently on. So
many stocks will react to
their quarterly numbers. That should be taken into account before taking any
buy/sell decisions.
So,
For now, look for BUY trade
possibilities in strong sectors and stocks.
Keep eyes open for short term SHORT SELL opportunities
near resistances or because of poor results.
The Volatility range continues
(10-14)
=========================================
At the end of the week, we will also
do a review of this analysis.
=========================================
MOST STOCKS TEND TO
FOLLOW THE TREND OF THEIR SECTOR INDEX.
BUYING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS POSITIVE.
SELLING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN
STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS NEGATIVE.
BUYING / SELLING AGAINST THE SECTOR
INDEX SIGNAL CAN ALSO BE DONE IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, PROVIDED THERE IS A STRONG
CASE FOR DOING SO.
We use TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS for our studies.
Disclaimer – Please do your
own analysis before taking trades.
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