This blog aims to serve as a GUIDE and MOTIVATION to our LEARNERS.
The purpose of this blog is to create awareness amongst all traders that it is very important to LEARN TO HAVE TRADING PLAN!

Sunday, 29 July 2018

Market Direction View - 30/7/2018 to 3/8/2018


A full trading week ahead.

Result season is on.
To check list of companies which will announce results this week – Click here


Nifty50 – broke its 2 month range a couple of weeks ago. The range breakout has a big target and can take this index till 11700.
For now though, the speed of this upmove is getting a bit too fast.

This week,

BUY possible if Nifty stays above 11200.

Very Short term SHORT SELL possible if Nifty goes below 11200.

Major trend change likely only if Nifty goes below 11000.



Similar signs visible in Sensex.
Short term BUY possible if Sensex stays above 37336.
Short term SHORT SELL possible if Sensex goes below 37130.
Major trend change starts only if Sensex goes below 36700.



Nifty Bank – also broke out of its 2 month range last week. The range breakout has a target of 27900.
In this index also, the speed of this upmove is getting a bit too fast.

This week,

BUY possible if Nifty Bank goes above 27650.

Very Short term SHORT SELL possible if Nifty Bank goes below 27500.

Bank Nifty remains a buy on dips until it goes below 27000.



  
Other Sectoral Indices –


Auto - (Uptrend under threat!) (Needs to go above 11050 to save the uptrend)
(For now, short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible only if this index goes above 10900)
(SHORT SELL trades in individual stocks will again be possible if this current up move fails)


Energy - (In an Uptrend) (Crucial support now near 14500)
(For now BUY trades in individual stocks possible if this index goes above 14737 or after a dip to support levels)


FMCG - (In n Uptrend) (Crucial support now near 30000)
(For now, BUY trades in individual stocks possible after a dip)


IT – (In a mild UpTrend) (Currently in a range 14750-14400)
(For now, best trades in individual stocks possible only after range break)


Metal – (In a Downtrend) (No trend reversal until 3500 gets crossed!)
(For now, short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible until 3230 on the index is held)
(SHORT SELL trades in individual stocks will again be possible if this current up move fails)


Pharma - (In a Downtrend) (Needs to cross 9381 for the current upmove to continue. Below 8875 level downtrend resumes)
(For now, short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible until 8900 on the index is held)


Realty - (In a Downtrend) (Needs to cross 290 to confirm change in trend)
(For now, short term BUY trades in individual stocks possible after the index crosses 268)





Personal Notes:
Market movement surprises traders and investors all the time!
Just a month ago what looked like a range bound market has suddenly resumed its uptrend!

Is there large scale participation? Or is this up move in indices due to large heavyweight stocks?
That will become clear in the coming days.
But, As traders we should not fight the trend!

Result season is currently on. So many stocks will react to their quarterly numbers. That should be taken into account before taking any buy/sell decisions.

So,
For now, look for BUY trade possibilities in strong sectors and stocks.
Keep eyes open for short term SHORT SELL opportunities near resistances or because of poor results.


The Volatility range continues (10-14)


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At the end of the week, we will also do a review of this analysis.
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MOST STOCKS TEND TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF THEIR SECTOR INDEX.

BUYING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS POSITIVE.
SELLING SHOULD MOSTLY BE DONE IN STOCKS WHERE SECTOR INDEX IS NEGATIVE.

BUYING / SELLING AGAINST THE SECTOR INDEX SIGNAL CAN ALSO BE DONE IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, PROVIDED THERE IS A STRONG CASE FOR DOING SO.


We use TECHNICAL ANALYSIS for our studies.

Disclaimer – Please do your own analysis before taking trades.

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